Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 45.455070 53.632197 62.621068 73.203435 85.287113 98.620221 114.409514
2024-10-27 31.011203 41.201785 53.540150 69.442571 89.244439 112.928761 143.221370
2024-11-03 25.252035 36.710751 51.621840 72.148779 99.329250 133.706966 180.034764
2024-11-10 21.776568 34.131548 51.194151 75.968151 110.411660 155.915915 219.748921
2024-11-17 19.018073 31.885204 50.615975 79.103435 120.400604 177.006473 259.118859
2024-11-24 16.156378 28.906910 48.425170 79.434219 126.163873 192.413939 291.479806
2024-12-01 13.300783 25.399808 44.867664 77.143945 127.636076 201.559684 315.314551
2024-12-08 11.512109 23.324988 43.204324 77.433626 132.764495 216.062932 347.440960
2024-12-15 10.177375 21.801098 42.196446 78.557867 139.113523 232.597487 383.323944
2024-12-22 7.985943 18.300911 37.329861 72.682452 133.648502 230.548185 390.790607
2024-12-29 7.228383 17.441522 37.010625 74.503793 140.850819 248.577965 430.038516
2025-01-05 6.237270 15.924642 35.265972 73.568217 143.231600 258.919147 457.588706
2025-01-12 6.091559 16.331438 37.509794 80.642620 160.921342 296.765578 533.816993
2025-01-19 4.803506 13.932558 33.904482 76.414531 158.424658 301.280437 556.762335
2025-01-26 4.344762 13.379178 33.996105 79.337783 169.142225 328.904651 619.726411
2025-02-02 4.033133 13.121076 34.671148 83.479240 182.442046 361.808261 693.441195
2025-02-09 3.701564 12.731712 34.984755 86.878141 194.553286 393.299241 766.374954
2025-02-16 3.224631 11.819241 33.940151 87.236649 200.687410 414.334991 822.089811
2025-02-23 2.668558 10.517886 31.736592 84.753974 200.842450 424.313450 858.591342
2025-03-02 2.330526 9.789996 30.830808 85.068035 206.706521 445.233865 915.836179
2025-03-09 2.075406 9.259517 30.345053 86.286772 214.534007 470.295682 981.867648
2025-03-16 1.582667 7.734055 26.890128 79.915261 205.430583 461.922342 985.173418
2025-03-23 1.436806 7.436077 26.819457 81.890992 214.815651 490.481158 1059.554338